Tomorrow

Forecast at a Glance from the National Weather Service

Overnight Heavy Rain Lo 57 °F

Thursday Heavy Rain Hi 71 °F

Thursday Night Chance Tstms Lo 57 °F

Friday Chance Tstms Hi 73 °F

Friday Night Severe Tstms Lo 48 °F

Saturday Mostly Sunny Hi 62 °F

Saturday Night Mostly Cloudy Lo 42 °F

Sunday Partly Sunny Hi 65 °F

Sunday Night Partly Cloudy Lo 43 °F

Go to National Weather Service page
Detailed site information

Weather Forecasts for Tomorrow, Friday 12 March 2010

Forecaster	Tmin(F)	Tmax(F)	Precip(in)	Comment
Highest-Rated Forecasters From All Divisions
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2	56	72	0.77
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2	58	72	0.51
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2	55	75	0.05
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1	54	76	0.03
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1	46	70	0.80
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2	57	70	1.57
CLIMATOLOGY	44	71	0.20	From 1971-2000 U.S. Climate Normals

View All Weather Forecasts For This Day By Division

A Sample Forecasting Procedure

Weather forecasters look at many types of data to help them build a forecast, and each forecaster will have their own approach. Here is a simple procedure to get you started.

1. First look at current weather conditions:
   

   Surface Analysis

   Visible Satellite

   Infrared Satellite

   Radar

   
   A good stating point for formulating your forecast will be determining what is happening around the country today. Where are the major weather systems? Where has it been hot? Where has it been raining? Is any of this weather moving towards my forecasting site over the next forecasting period?
2. Look at the National Weather Service hourly weather forecast graph and the forecast of fronts and precipitation:
   

   Graph

   Fronts/Precip

   Remember that the forecast day goes from about midnight to midnight local time. We forecast for a daily High and Low. The Low is typically recorded in the early morning hours of the day, while the high is generally reached in the afternoon. But check the hourly graph for the possibility that the Low and High might come at different times. For example, if a strong cold front comes through early in the day, the High might be in the early morning hours and the temperature might fall for the rest of the day, and the Low would be at the very end of the day.
3. Look at National Weather Service precipitation forecasts:
   

   Precip

   The times for these plots are in UTC (or GMT); a contest day goes from 0600 UTC (about midnight in most of the U.S.) to 0600 UTC the next day. Click on the plots corresponding to those hours. Your precip forecast is for the whole day, so you would add the amounts from each 6- or 12-hr plot to calculate what the NWS is predicting for the entire contest day. Remember that you need to predict the amount in inches, and most locations receive amounts over one inch only a few times each year. On most days the precip forecast should be zero, and for many others it will be a few hundredths of an inch (e.g. 0.15 inches).
4. Check and submit your forecast:
   Once you have determined your high, low, and precipitation amount, check it with the computer model forecasts shown in the table above. Are you close? Generally it’s a good idea to be fairly close to these computer forecasts, because they're typically quite good. Once you've entered your forecast in the form above, click the Submit button.

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division

Today

Weather Forecasts for Today, Thursday 11 March 2010

Forecaster	Tmin(F)	Tmax(F)	Precip(in)	Comment
OBSERVED	59	59		Observed data through: 02:53 EST.
Highest-Rated Forecasters From All Divisions
MEDIAN	57.5	71	1.58
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1	56	74	1.76
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1	58	71	0.95
CONSENSUS-1	57.5	72.1	1.65
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2	57	74	1.49
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1	58	70	1.49
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0	59	70	1.49
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2	58	74	2.24
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1	55	71	2.24
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2	58	72	1.49
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1	59	74	1.86
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1	57	68	1.49
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0	51	66	1.86
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2	57	70	1.68
CLIMATOLOGY	44	71	0.20	From 1971-2000 U.S. Climate Normals
PERSISTENCE	48	77	0

View All Weather Forecasts For This Day By Division

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division

Yesterday

Weather Forecasts for Yesterday, Wednesday 10 March 2010

Forecaster	Tmin (score)	Tmax (score)	Precip (score)	Comment	Day Score	Division Points
OBSERVED	48	77	0	FINAL.
Best Forecasts From All Divisions
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2	49	66	2.29
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2	45	63	0.82
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2	49	67	1.03
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2	50	67	0.85
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1	48	70	0.47
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1	50	68	0.15
CLIMATOLOGY	44	70	0.19	From 1971-2000 U.S. Climate Normals
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1	49	72	0.22
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1	49	74	0.37
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1	50	72	0.17
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1	51	74	0.15
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0	49	71	0.82
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0	53	72	0.29
CONSENSUS-1	49.9	70.4	0.60
MEDIAN	49	70.5	0.42
PERSISTENCE	43	68	0

View All Weather Forecasts For This Day By Division

Daily Weather Map page

Results for Previous Days

Tuesday 9 March 2010
Monday 8 March 2010
Sunday 7 March 2010
Saturday 6 March 2010

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division

Standings

Leading Weather Forecasters for Week of Sun 7 Mar 2010 - Sat 13 Mar 2010

Rank

Forecaster

# Forecasts

Tmin Score

Tmax Score

Precip Score

Week Score

Division Points

View All Forecasters For This Week By Division

Leading Weather Forecasters for March 2010

Rank

Forecaster

# Forecasts

Tmin Score

Tmax Score

Precip Score

Month Score

Division Points

View All Forecasters For This Month By Division

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division

Top Forecasters

Highest-Rated Weather Forecasters, All Divisions

Higher numbers are better, minimum of 5 forecasts

Rank	Forecaster	# Forecasts	Forecaster Rating
1	MEDIAN	25	118.4
2	NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1	11	113.1
3	NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1	11	110.0
4	CONSENSUS-1	25	109.6
5	NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2	10	105.9
6	NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1	11	105.5
7	NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0	11	101.1
8	NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2	10	98.2
9	NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1	11	97.3
10	NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2	10	91.4
11	NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1	11	89.8
12	NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1	11	84.4
13	NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0	11	74.3
14	NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2	10	73.1
15	PERSISTENCE	11	-135.1
16	CLIMATOLOGY	11	-256.6

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division