Tomorrow

Forecast at a Glance from the National Weather Service

Tonight Showers Lo 49 °F

Wednesday Showers Hi 60 °F

Wednesday Night Showers Lo 52 °F

Thursday Tstms Likely Hi 69 °F

Thursday Night Chance Tstms Lo 51 °F

Friday Chance Tstms Hi 71 °F

Friday Night Slight Chc Showers Lo 42 °F

Saturday Slight Chc Showers Hi 58 °F

Saturday Night Slight Chc Showers Lo 40 °F

Go to National Weather Service page
Detailed site information

Weather Forecasts for Tomorrow, Wednesday 10 March 2010

Forecaster	Tmin(F)	Tmax(F)	Precip(in)	Comment
Highest-Rated Forecasters From All Divisions
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1	45	61	1.28
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2	44	57	2.10
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2	44	56	2.29
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1	49	64	0.81
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2	41	56	1.16
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1	46	59	1.47
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1	44	57	1.18
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1	47	60	1.75
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2	43	55	0.71
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1	44	58	0.96

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A Sample Forecasting Procedure

Weather forecasters look at many types of data to help them build a forecast, and each forecaster will have their own approach. Here is a simple procedure to get you started.

1. First look at current weather conditions:
   

   Surface Analysis

   Visible Satellite

   Infrared Satellite

   Radar

   
   A good stating point for formulating your forecast will be determining what is happening around the country today. Where are the major weather systems? Where has it been hot? Where has it been raining? Is any of this weather moving towards my forecasting site over the next forecasting period?
2. Look at the National Weather Service hourly weather forecast graph and the forecast of fronts and precipitation:
   

   Graph

   Fronts/Precip

   Remember that the forecast day goes from about midnight to midnight local time. We forecast for a daily High and Low. The Low is typically recorded in the early morning hours of the day, while the high is generally reached in the afternoon. But check the hourly graph for the possibility that the Low and High might come at different times. For example, if a strong cold front comes through early in the day, the High might be in the early morning hours and the temperature might fall for the rest of the day, and the Low would be at the very end of the day.
3. Look at National Weather Service precipitation forecasts:
   

   Precip

   The times for these plots are in UTC (or GMT); a contest day goes from 0600 UTC (about midnight in most of the U.S.) to 0600 UTC the next day. Click on the plots corresponding to those hours. Your precip forecast is for the whole day, so you would add the amounts from each 6- or 12-hr plot to calculate what the NWS is predicting for the entire contest day. Remember that you need to predict the amount in inches, and most locations receive amounts over one inch only a few times each year. On most days the precip forecast should be zero, and for many others it will be a few hundredths of an inch (e.g. 0.15 inches).
4. Check and submit your forecast:
   Once you have determined your high, low, and precipitation amount, check it with the computer model forecasts shown in the table above. Are you close? Generally it’s a good idea to be fairly close to these computer forecasts, because they're typically quite good. Once you've entered your forecast in the form above, click the Submit button.

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division

Today

Weather Forecasts for Today, Tuesday 9 March 2010

Forecaster	Tmin(F)	Tmax(F)	Precip(in)	Comment
OBSERVED	34	69	0	Observed data through: 19:53 EST.
Highest-Rated Forecasters From All Divisions
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1	36	64	0
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2	38	59	0.03
CONSENSUS-1	37.0	62.6	0.02
MEDIAN	37	63.5	0.01
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2	38	61	0.03
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1	37	69	0
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0	37	64	0.05
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2	37	60	0
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0	38	63	0.05
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1	35	64	0
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1	37	58	0.03
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1	36	68	0
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2	40	71	0
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1	36	61	0.03
PERSISTENCE	29	74	0

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Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division

Yesterday

Weather Forecasts for Yesterday, Monday 8 March 2010

Forecaster	Tmin (score)	Tmax (score)	Precip (score)	Comment	Day Score	Division Points
OBSERVED	29	74	0	FINAL.
Best Forecasts From All Divisions
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2	29 (0)	70 (4)	0 (0)		4	10.5
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1	29 (0)	70 (4)	0 (0)		4	10.5
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1	29 (0)	70 (4)	0 (0)		4	10.5
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0	29 (0)	70 (4)	0 (0)		4	10.5
MEDIAN	29 (0)	70 (4)	0 (0)		4
CONSENSUS-1	29.5 (0.5)	69.8 (4.2)	0 (0)		4.7
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2	30 (1)	70 (4)	0 (0)		5	6
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2	29 (0)	69 (5)	0 (0)		5	6
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1	29 (0)	69 (5)	0 (0)		5	6
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1	29 (0)	69 (5)	0 (0)		5	6
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0	30 (1)	70 (4)	0 (0)		5	6
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1	28 (1)	69 (5)	0 (0)		6	3
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2	31 (2)	69 (5)	0 (0)		7	2
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1	33 (4)	70 (4)	0 (0)		8	1
PERSISTENCE	24 (5)	64 (10)	0 (0)		15

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Daily Weather Map page

Results for Previous Days

Sunday 7 March 2010
Saturday 6 March 2010
Friday 5 March 2010
Thursday 4 March 2010

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division

Standings

Leading Weather Forecasters for Week of Sun 28 Feb 2010 - Sat 6 Mar 2010

Rank

Forecaster

# Forecasts

Tmin Score

Tmax Score

Precip Score

Week Score

Division Points

View All Forecasters For This Week By Division

Leading Weather Forecasters for March 2010

Rank

Forecaster

# Forecasts

Tmin Score

Tmax Score

Precip Score

Month Score

Division Points

View All Forecasters For This Month By Division

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division

Top Forecasters

Highest-Rated Weather Forecasters, All Divisions

Higher numbers are better, minimum of 5 forecasts

Rank	Forecaster	# Forecasts	Forecaster Rating
1	NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1	11	114.7
2	NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2	10	114.1
3	CONSENSUS-1	25	113.9
4	MEDIAN	25	112.3
5	NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2	10	110.8
6	NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1	11	108.4
7	NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0	11	104.9
8	NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2	10	104.7
9	NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0	11	104.4
10	NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1	11	101.3
11	NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1	11	100.6
12	NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1	11	97.7
13	NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2	10	95.9
14	NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1	11	77.2
15	PERSISTENCE	11	-38.8

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division