Weather Forecasting Contest for Aurora, IL (KARR)
Tomorrow
Forecast at a Glance from the National Weather Service
| This Afternoon  Cloudy Hi 37 °F | Tonight Cloudy Lo 27 °F | Tuesday Slight Chc Snow Hi 35 °F | Tuesday Night  Slight Chc Snow Lo 22 °F | Wednesday Partly Sunny Hi 31 °F | Wednesday Night  Partly Cloudy Lo 21 °F | Thursday Sunny Hi 37 °F | Thursday Night Partly Cloudy Lo 21 °F | Friday Mostly Sunny Hi 27 °F |
Go to National Weather Service page
Detailed site information
Weather Forecasts for Tuesday 7 February 2012
| Forecaster | Tmin(F) | Tmax(F) | Precip(in) | Comment |
| NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1 | 25 | 37 | 0 | |
| NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2 | 22 | 36 | 0 | |
| NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1 | 24 | 37 | 0 | |
| NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1 | 24 | 37 | 0 | |
| NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2 | 24 | 37 | 0 | |
| NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2 | 25 | 35 | 0 | |
| NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1 | 22 | 35 | 0.05 | |
| NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1 | 25 | 36 | 0 | |
| NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2 | 24 | 36 | 0 |
A Sample Forecasting Procedure
Weather forecasters look at many types of data to help them build a forecast, and each forecaster will have their own approach. Here is a simple procedure to get you started.
- First look at current weather conditions:
Surface Analysis
Visible
Satellite
Infrared
Satellite
Radar
A good stating point for formulating your forecast will be determining what is happening around the country today. Where are the major weather systems? Where has it been hot? Where has it been raining? Is any of this weather moving towards my forecasting site over the next forecasting period? - Look at the National Weather Service hourly weather forecast graph and the forecast of fronts and precipitation:
Remember that the forecast day goes from about midnight to midnight local time. We forecast for a daily High and Low. The Low is typically recorded in the early morning hours of the day, while the high is generally reached in the afternoon. But check the hourly graph for the possibility that the Low and High might come at different times. For example, if a strong cold front comes through early in the day, the High might be in the early morning hours and the temperature might fall for the rest of the day, and the Low would be at the very end of the day.
Graph
Fronts/Precip - Look at National Weather Service precipitation forecasts:
The times for these plots are in UTC (or GMT); a contest day goes from 0600 UTC (about midnight in most of the U.S.) to 0600 UTC the next day. Click on the plots corresponding to those hours. Your precip forecast is for the whole day, so you would add the amounts from each 6- or 12-hr plot to calculate what the NWS is predicting for the entire contest day. Remember that you need to predict the amount in inches, and most locations receive amounts over one inch only a few times each year. On most days the precip forecast should be zero, and for many others it will be a few hundredths of an inch (e.g. 0.15 inches).
Precip - Check and submit your forecast:
Once you have determined your high, low, and precipitation amount, check it with the computer model forecasts shown in the table above. Are you close? Generally it’s a good idea to be fairly close to these computer forecasts, because they're typically quite good. Once you've entered your forecast in the form above, click the Submit button.
Legend
| This Month's Division Leaders |
month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week| Elementary School Divisions |
| Middle School Divisions |
| High School Divisions |
| College Divisions |
| Teacher Division |
| Open Division |
| Computer Division |
| Consensus Division |
| Reference Division |
Today
Weather Forecasts for Monday 6 Februrary 2012
| Forecaster | Tmin | Tmax | Precip | Comment | ||
| OBSERVED | 29 | 30 | 0 | Observed data through: 10:52 CST. | ||
| Consensus | ||||||
| MEDIAN | 19 | 43.5 | 0 | |||
| CONSENSUS-1 | 20.7 | 43.2 | 0 | |||
| Computer | ||||||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0 | 26 | 43 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0 | 24 | 41 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1 | 19 | 44 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1 | 18 | 45 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2 | 19 | 43 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1 | 18 | 45 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1 | 22 | 42 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2 | 19 | 44 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2 | 22 | 42 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1 | 24 | 42 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1 | 18 | 44 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2 | 19 | 44 | 0 | |||
| Reference | ||||||
| PERSISTENCE | 26 | 43 | 0 | |||
Legend
| This Month's Division Leaders |
month division wins in last year week division wins in last month day division wins in last week| Elementary School Divisions |
| Middle School Divisions |
| High School Divisions |
| College Divisions |
| Teacher Division |
| Open Division |
| Computer Division |
| Consensus Division |
| Reference Division |
Yesterday
Weather Forecasts for Saturday 5 Februrary 2012
| Forecaster | Tmin (score) | Tmax (score) | Precip (score) | Comment | Day Score | Division Points |
| OBSERVED | 26 | 43 | 0 | Data FINAL. Scores COMPLETE. | ||
| Consensus | ||||||
| CONSENSUS-1 | 23.6 (2.4) | 40.5 (2.5) | 0 (0) | 5.0 | ||
| MEDIAN | 24 (2) | 40 (3) | 0 (0) | 5 | ||
| Computer | ||||||
| NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0 | 25 (1) | 44 (1) | 0 (0) | 2 | ||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2 | 25 (1) | 42 (1) | 0 (0) | 2 | ||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0 | 25 (1) | 41 (2) | 0 (0) | 3 | ||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2 | 25 (1) | 40 (3) | 0 (0) | 4 | ||
| NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1 | 24 (2) | 41 (2) | 0 (0) | 4 | ||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2 | 24 (2) | 40 (3) | 0 (0) | 5 | ||
| NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1 | 20 (6) | 43 (0) | 0 (0) | 6 | ||
| NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2 | 24 (2) | 39 (4) | 0 (0) | 6 | ||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1 | 23 (3) | 39 (4) | 0 (0) | 7 | ||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1 | 23 (3) | 39 (4) | 0 (0) | 7 | ||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1 | 23 (3) | 39 (4) | 0 (0) | 7 | ||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1 | 22 (4) | 39 (4) | 0 (0) | 8 | ||
| Reference | ||||||
| PERSISTENCE | 28 (2) | 43 (0) | 0.08 (5.6) | 7.6 | ||
Daily Weather Map page
Results for Previous Days
Saturday 4 February 2012Friday 3 February 2012
Thursday 2 February 2012
Wednesday 1 February 2012
Legend
| This Month's Division Leaders |
month division wins in last year week division wins in last month day division wins in last week| Elementary School Divisions |
| Middle School Divisions |
| High School Divisions |
| College Divisions |
| Teacher Division |
| Open Division |
| Computer Division |
| Consensus Division |
| Reference Division |
Standings
Leading Weather Forecasters for Week of Sun 29 Jan 2012 - Sat 4 Feb 2012
| Rank | Forecaster | # Forecasts | Tmin Score | Tmax Score | Precip Score | Week Score | Division Points |
Leading Weather Forecasters for Februrary 2012
| Rank | Forecaster | # Forecasts | Tmin Score | Tmax Score | Precip Score | Month Score | Division Points |
Legend
| This Month's Division Leaders |
month division wins in last year week division wins in last month day division wins in last week| Elementary School Divisions |
| Middle School Divisions |
| High School Divisions |
| College Divisions |
| Teacher Division |
| Open Division |
| Computer Division |
| Consensus Division |
| Reference Division |
Top Forecasters
Highest-Rated Forecasters, All Divisions
Higher numbers are better, minimum of 5 forecasts| Rank | Forecaster | # Forecasts | Forecaster Rating |
Legend
| This Month's Division Leaders |
month division wins in last year week division wins in last month day division wins in last week| Elementary School Divisions |
| Middle School Divisions |
| High School Divisions |
| College Divisions |
| Teacher Division |
| Open Division |
| Computer Division |
| Consensus Division |
| Reference Division |
Weather for Aurora, Illinois (KARR)
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