Tomorrow

Forecast at a Glance from the National Weather Service

Overnight Areas Fog Lo 44 °F

Thursday Showers Hi 53 °F

Thursday Night Chance Showers Lo 43 °F

Friday Chance Showers Hi 47 °F

Friday Night Chance Showers Lo 40 °F

Saturday Chance Showers Hi 48 °F

Saturday Night Chance Showers Lo 37 °F

Sunday Slight Chc Showers Hi 46 °F

Sunday Night Mostly Cloudy Lo 34 °F

Go to National Weather Service page
Detailed site information

Weather Forecasts for Tomorrow, Friday 12 March 2010

Forecaster	Tmin(F)	Tmax(F)	Precip(in)	Comment
Highest-Rated Forecasters From All Divisions
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1	43	53	0.17
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2	43	54	0.22
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1	42	54	0.34
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2	44	58	0.20
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2	44	55	0.22
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2	45	53	0.10
CLIMATOLOGY	29	46	0.09	From 1971-2000 U.S. Climate Normals

View All Weather Forecasts For This Day By Division

A Sample Forecasting Procedure

Weather forecasters look at many types of data to help them build a forecast, and each forecaster will have their own approach. Here is a simple procedure to get you started.

1. First look at current weather conditions:
   

   Surface Analysis

   Visible Satellite

   Infrared Satellite

   Radar

   
   A good stating point for formulating your forecast will be determining what is happening around the country today. Where are the major weather systems? Where has it been hot? Where has it been raining? Is any of this weather moving towards my forecasting site over the next forecasting period?
2. Look at the National Weather Service hourly weather forecast graph and the forecast of fronts and precipitation:
   

   Graph

   Fronts/Precip

   Remember that the forecast day goes from about midnight to midnight local time. We forecast for a daily High and Low. The Low is typically recorded in the early morning hours of the day, while the high is generally reached in the afternoon. But check the hourly graph for the possibility that the Low and High might come at different times. For example, if a strong cold front comes through early in the day, the High might be in the early morning hours and the temperature might fall for the rest of the day, and the Low would be at the very end of the day.
3. Look at National Weather Service precipitation forecasts:
   

   Precip

   The times for these plots are in UTC (or GMT); a contest day goes from 0600 UTC (about midnight in most of the U.S.) to 0600 UTC the next day. Click on the plots corresponding to those hours. Your precip forecast is for the whole day, so you would add the amounts from each 6- or 12-hr plot to calculate what the NWS is predicting for the entire contest day. Remember that you need to predict the amount in inches, and most locations receive amounts over one inch only a few times each year. On most days the precip forecast should be zero, and for many others it will be a few hundredths of an inch (e.g. 0.15 inches).
4. Check and submit your forecast:
   Once you have determined your high, low, and precipitation amount, check it with the computer model forecasts shown in the table above. Are you close? Generally it’s a good idea to be fairly close to these computer forecasts, because they're typically quite good. Once you've entered your forecast in the form above, click the Submit button.

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division

Today

Weather Forecasts for Today, Thursday 11 March 2010

Forecaster	Tmin(F)	Tmax(F)	Precip(in)	Comment
OBSERVED	50	50		Observed data through: 01:51 CST.
Highest-Rated Forecasters From All Divisions
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0	48	58	0.18
CONSENSUS-1	48.2	58.3	0.33
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1	47	59	0.61
MEDIAN	48	58	0.34
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1	49	57	0.34
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2	47	59	0.11
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1	49	59	0.20
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1	48	57	0.47
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0	48	58	0.34
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1	49	59	0.44
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1	49	59	0.24
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2	48	58	0.47
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2	48	57	0.45
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2	47	57	0.34
CLIMATOLOGY	29	45	0.08	From 1971-2000 U.S. Climate Normals
PERSISTENCE	48	64	0.09

View All Weather Forecasts For This Day By Division

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division

Yesterday

Weather Forecasts for Yesterday, Wednesday 10 March 2010

Forecaster	Tmin (score)	Tmax (score)	Precip (score)	Comment	Day Score	Division Points
OBSERVED	48	64	0.09	FINAL.
Best Forecasts From All Divisions
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2	43	57	0.05
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2	47	57	0.05
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2	44	58	0.05
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2	44	60	0.05
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1	46	55	0
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1	45	61	0.10
CLIMATOLOGY	29	45	0.08	From 1971-2000 U.S. Climate Normals
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1	45	59	0.10
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1	47	59	0.10
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1	47	60	0.10
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1	47	61	0.10
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0	45	56	0
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0	48	60	0.10
CONSENSUS-1	46.2	58.6	0.07
MEDIAN	45.5	59	0.07
PERSISTENCE	31	51	0

View All Weather Forecasts For This Day By Division

Daily Weather Map page

Results for Previous Days

Tuesday 9 March 2010
Monday 8 March 2010
Sunday 7 March 2010
Saturday 6 March 2010

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division

Standings

Leading Weather Forecasters for Week of Sun 7 Mar 2010 - Sat 13 Mar 2010

Rank

Forecaster

# Forecasts

Tmin Score

Tmax Score

Precip Score

Week Score

Division Points

View All Forecasters For This Week By Division

Leading Weather Forecasters for March 2010

Rank

Forecaster

# Forecasts

Tmin Score

Tmax Score

Precip Score

Month Score

Division Points

View All Forecasters For This Month By Division

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division

Top Forecasters

Highest-Rated Weather Forecasters, All Divisions

Higher numbers are better, minimum of 5 forecasts

Rank	Forecaster	# Forecasts	Forecaster Rating
1	NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0	25	116.0
2	CONSENSUS-1	25	112.6
3	NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1	25	112.3
4	MEDIAN	25	105.5
5	NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1	25	104.3
6	NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2	25	104.1
7	NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1	25	100.2
8	NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1	25	96.5
9	NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0	25	95.9
10	NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1	25	95.6
11	NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1	25	91.0
12	NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2	25	88.0
13	NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2	25	87.0
14	NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2	25	81.3
15	PERSISTENCE	25	73.3
16	CLIMATOLOGY	25	-22.8

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division