Tomorrow

Forecast at a Glance from the National Weather Service

Tonight Slight Chc FzgRn Lo 32 °F

Wednesday Chance FzgRn Hi 41 °F

Wednesday Night FzgRn Likely Lo 30 °F

Thursday Chance FzgRn Hi 40 °F

Thursday Night Chance FzgRn Lo 28 °F

Friday Slight Chc FzgRn Hi 41 °F

Friday Night Mostly Cloudy Lo 28 °F

Saturday Mostly Cloudy Hi 43 °F

Saturday Night Mostly Cloudy Lo 26 °F

Go to National Weather Service page
Detailed site information

Weather Forecasts for Tomorrow, Wednesday 10 March 2010

Forecaster	Tmin(F)	Tmax(F)	Precip(in)	Comment
Highest-Rated Forecasters From All Divisions
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1	28	44	0
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1	28	41	0.17
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1	29	42	0.05
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1	30	42	0.05
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1	30	42	0
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1	31	42	0
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2	30	42	0
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2	29	42	0
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2	29	43	0
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2	27	41	0
CLIMATOLOGY	9	32	0.03	From 1971-2000 U.S. Climate Normals

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A Sample Forecasting Procedure

Weather forecasters look at many types of data to help them build a forecast, and each forecaster will have their own approach. Here is a simple procedure to get you started.

1. First look at current weather conditions:
   

   Surface Analysis

   Visible Satellite

   Infrared Satellite

   Radar

   
   A good stating point for formulating your forecast will be determining what is happening around the country today. Where are the major weather systems? Where has it been hot? Where has it been raining? Is any of this weather moving towards my forecasting site over the next forecasting period?
2. Look at the National Weather Service hourly weather forecast graph and the forecast of fronts and precipitation:
   

   Graph

   Fronts/Precip

   Remember that the forecast day goes from about midnight to midnight local time. We forecast for a daily High and Low. The Low is typically recorded in the early morning hours of the day, while the high is generally reached in the afternoon. But check the hourly graph for the possibility that the Low and High might come at different times. For example, if a strong cold front comes through early in the day, the High might be in the early morning hours and the temperature might fall for the rest of the day, and the Low would be at the very end of the day.
3. Look at National Weather Service precipitation forecasts:
   

   Precip

   The times for these plots are in UTC (or GMT); a contest day goes from 0600 UTC (about midnight in most of the U.S.) to 0600 UTC the next day. Click on the plots corresponding to those hours. Your precip forecast is for the whole day, so you would add the amounts from each 6- or 12-hr plot to calculate what the NWS is predicting for the entire contest day. Remember that you need to predict the amount in inches, and most locations receive amounts over one inch only a few times each year. On most days the precip forecast should be zero, and for many others it will be a few hundredths of an inch (e.g. 0.15 inches).
4. Check and submit your forecast:
   Once you have determined your high, low, and precipitation amount, check it with the computer model forecasts shown in the table above. Are you close? Generally it’s a good idea to be fairly close to these computer forecasts, because they're typically quite good. Once you've entered your forecast in the form above, click the Submit button.

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division

Today

Weather Forecasts for Today, Tuesday 9 March 2010

Forecaster	Tmin(F)	Tmax(F)	Precip(in)	Comment
OBSERVED	34	40	0.12	Observed data through: 18:55 CST.
Highest-Rated Forecasters From All Divisions
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1	33	48	0
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1	28	43	0.10
CONSENSUS-1	30.9	41.8	0.10
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1	29	41	0.18
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0	33	42	0.12
MEDIAN	30	41	0.09
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1	31	41	0.12
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0	33	40	0.12
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1	29	40	0.12
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1	32	41	0.07
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2	30	40	0.05
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2	29	41	0
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2	30	41	0.07
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2	25	42	0.07
CLIMATOLOGY	9	31	0.03	From 1971-2000 U.S. Climate Normals
PERSISTENCE	31	39	0.04

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Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division

Yesterday

Weather Forecasts for Yesterday, Monday 8 March 2010

Forecaster	Tmin (score)	Tmax (score)	Precip (score)	Comment	Day Score	Division Points
OBSERVED	31	39	0.04	FINAL.
Best Forecasts From All Divisions
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0	30 (1)	40 (1)	0.05 (0.3)		2.3	12
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0	31 (0)	41 (2)	0 (4.5)		6.5	11
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1	29 (2)	40 (1)	0 (4.5)		7.5	10
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1	29 (2)	41 (2)	0 (4.5)		8.5	8.5
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1	29 (2)	41 (2)	0 (4.5)		8.5	8.5
CONSENSUS-1	27.6 (3.4)	41.0 (2.0)	0.01 (3.5)		8.9
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1	28 (3)	41 (2)	0 (4.5)		9.5	6.5
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1	27 (4)	40 (1)	0 (4.5)		9.5	6.5
MEDIAN	27.5 (3.5)	40.5 (1.5)	0 (4.5)		9.5
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2	26 (5)	40 (1)	0 (4.5)		10.5	4
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2	27 (4)	41 (2)	0 (4.5)		10.5	4
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1	25 (6)	39 (0)	0 (4.5)		10.5	4
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2	27 (4)	42 (3)	0 (4.5)		11.5	2
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2	21 (10)	40 (1)	0 (4.5)		15.5	1
PERSISTENCE	21 (10)	47 (8)	0 (4.5)		22.5
CLIMATOLOGY	8 (23)	31 (8)	0.03 (0.3)	From 1971-2000 U.S. Climate Normals	31.3

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Daily Weather Map page

Results for Previous Days

Sunday 7 March 2010
Saturday 6 March 2010
Friday 5 March 2010
Thursday 4 March 2010

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division

Standings

Leading Weather Forecasters for Week of Sun 28 Feb 2010 - Sat 6 Mar 2010

Rank

Forecaster

# Forecasts

Tmin Score

Tmax Score

Precip Score

Week Score

Division Points

View All Forecasters For This Week By Division

Leading Weather Forecasters for March 2010

Rank

Forecaster

# Forecasts

Tmin Score

Tmax Score

Precip Score

Month Score

Division Points

View All Forecasters For This Month By Division

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division

Top Forecasters

Highest-Rated Weather Forecasters, All Divisions

Higher numbers are better, minimum of 5 forecasts

Rank	Forecaster	# Forecasts	Forecaster Rating
1	NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1	25	118.4
2	NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1	25	115.3
3	CONSENSUS-1	25	105.7
4	NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1	25	98.8
5	NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0	25	98.1
6	MEDIAN	25	96.8
7	PERSISTENCE	25	95.7
8	NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1	25	94.6
9	NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0	25	90.0
10	NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1	25	86.5
11	NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1	25	86.4
12	NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2	25	83.3
13	NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2	25	81.0
14	NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2	25	79.0
15	NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2	25	75.8
16	CLIMATOLOGY	25	1.4

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division