Tomorrow

Forecast at a Glance from the National Weather Service

Overnight Slight Chc Rain Lo 36 °F

Thursday Rain Hi 48 °F

Thursday Night Rain Likely Lo 43 °F

Friday Chance Rain Hi 46 °F

Friday Night Chance Rain Lo 39 °F

Saturday Chance Rain Hi 48 °F

Saturday Night Chance Rain Lo 39 °F

Sunday Slight Chc Showers Hi 50 °F

Sunday Night Mostly Cloudy Lo 34 °F

Go to National Weather Service page
Detailed site information

Weather Forecasts for Tomorrow, Friday 12 March 2010

Forecaster	Tmin(F)	Tmax(F)	Precip(in)	Comment
Highest-Rated Forecasters From All Divisions
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1	41	50	0.05
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2	39	48	0.12
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2	41	51	0.16
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2	43	52	0.10
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2	41	53	0.10
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1	41	52	0.22

View All Weather Forecasts For This Day By Division

A Sample Forecasting Procedure

Weather forecasters look at many types of data to help them build a forecast, and each forecaster will have their own approach. Here is a simple procedure to get you started.

1. First look at current weather conditions:
   

   Surface Analysis

   Visible Satellite

   Infrared Satellite

   Radar

   
   A good stating point for formulating your forecast will be determining what is happening around the country today. Where are the major weather systems? Where has it been hot? Where has it been raining? Is any of this weather moving towards my forecasting site over the next forecasting period?
2. Look at the National Weather Service hourly weather forecast graph and the forecast of fronts and precipitation:
   

   Graph

   Fronts/Precip

   Remember that the forecast day goes from about midnight to midnight local time. We forecast for a daily High and Low. The Low is typically recorded in the early morning hours of the day, while the high is generally reached in the afternoon. But check the hourly graph for the possibility that the Low and High might come at different times. For example, if a strong cold front comes through early in the day, the High might be in the early morning hours and the temperature might fall for the rest of the day, and the Low would be at the very end of the day.
3. Look at National Weather Service precipitation forecasts:
   

   Precip

   The times for these plots are in UTC (or GMT); a contest day goes from 0600 UTC (about midnight in most of the U.S.) to 0600 UTC the next day. Click on the plots corresponding to those hours. Your precip forecast is for the whole day, so you would add the amounts from each 6- or 12-hr plot to calculate what the NWS is predicting for the entire contest day. Remember that you need to predict the amount in inches, and most locations receive amounts over one inch only a few times each year. On most days the precip forecast should be zero, and for many others it will be a few hundredths of an inch (e.g. 0.15 inches).
4. Check and submit your forecast:
   Once you have determined your high, low, and precipitation amount, check it with the computer model forecasts shown in the table above. Are you close? Generally it’s a good idea to be fairly close to these computer forecasts, because they're typically quite good. Once you've entered your forecast in the form above, click the Submit button.

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division

Today

Weather Forecasts for Today, Thursday 11 March 2010

Forecaster	Tmin(F)	Tmax(F)	Precip(in)	Comment
OBSERVED	37	37		Observed data through: 00:53 CST.
Highest-Rated Forecasters From All Divisions
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1	40	52	0.10
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1	37	50	0.36
CONSENSUS-1	37.2	50.4	0.30
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1	32	48	0.24
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2	34	49	0.10
MEDIAN	38	50.5	0.35
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0	39	49	0.34
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1	38	52	0.30
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2	38	52	0.36
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1	37	50	0.36
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0	39	52	0.48
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2	39	52	0.53
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2	38	50	0.24
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1	38	51	0.36
PERSISTENCE	37	42	0.16

View All Weather Forecasts For This Day By Division

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division

Yesterday

Weather Forecasts for Yesterday, Wednesday 10 March 2010

Forecaster	Tmin (score)	Tmax (score)	Precip (score)	Comment	Day Score	Division Points
OBSERVED	37	42	0.16	FINAL.
Best Forecasts From All Divisions
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2	35	47	0.24
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2	34	46	0.12
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2	36	46	0.18
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2	35	45	0.14
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1	39	45	0.24
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1	36	45	0.12
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1	36	46	0.12
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1	38	46	0.47
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1	36	46	0.24
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1	35	44	0.24
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0	37	43	0.24
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0	39	44	0.34
MEDIAN	36	45.5	0.24
CONSENSUS-1	36.5	45.2	0.26
PERSISTENCE	34	40	0.04

View All Weather Forecasts For This Day By Division

Daily Weather Map page

Results for Previous Days

Tuesday 9 March 2010
Monday 8 March 2010
Sunday 7 March 2010
Saturday 6 March 2010

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division

Standings

Leading Weather Forecasters for Week of Sun 7 Mar 2010 - Sat 13 Mar 2010

Rank

Forecaster

# Forecasts

Tmin Score

Tmax Score

Precip Score

Week Score

Division Points

View All Forecasters For This Week By Division

Leading Weather Forecasters for March 2010

Rank

Forecaster

# Forecasts

Tmin Score

Tmax Score

Precip Score

Month Score

Division Points

View All Forecasters For This Month By Division

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division

Top Forecasters

Highest-Rated Weather Forecasters, All Divisions

Higher numbers are better, minimum of 5 forecasts

Rank	Forecaster	# Forecasts	Forecaster Rating
1	NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1	25	115.9
2	NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1	25	115.5
3	CONSENSUS-1	25	109.3
4	NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1	25	104.3
5	NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2	25	103.6
6	MEDIAN	25	102.6
7	NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0	25	101.7
8	NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1	25	97.8
9	NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2	25	94.6
10	NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1	25	91.6
11	NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0	25	91.2
12	NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2	25	76.1
13	NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2	25	75.4
14	NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1	25	74.9
15	PERSISTENCE	25	73.8

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders

month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week

Elementary School Divisions

Middle School Divisions

High School Divisions

College Divisions

Teacher Division

Open Division

Computer Division

Consensus Division

Reference Division