Weather Forecasting Contest for Caldwell, NJ (KCDW)

Tomorrow

Forecast at a Glance from the National Weather Service

Tonight

Mostly Clear
Mostly
Clear
Lo 33 °F
Wednesday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly
Sunny
Hi 57 °F
Wednesday
Night

Slight Chance Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%
Slight Chc
Rain
Lo 37 °F
Thursday

Chance Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Rain
Hi 52 °F
Thursday
Night

Rain Likely Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Rain
Likely
Lo 39 °F
Friday

Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 80%
Rain

Hi 49 °F
Friday
Night

Rain Likely Chance for Measurable Precipitation 70%
Rain
Likely
Lo 45 °F
Saturday

Rain Likely Chance for Measurable Precipitation 70%
Rain
Likely
Hi 54 °F
Saturday
Night

Rain Likely Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Rain
Likely
Lo 42 °F

Go to National Weather Service page
Detailed site information

Weather Forecasts for Tomorrow, Wednesday 10 March 2010

Forecaster Tmin(F) Tmax(F) Precip(in) Comment
Highest-Rated Forecasters From All Divisions
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2 31 55 0
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2 33 52 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2 29 56 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2 31 57 0
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1 35 52 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1 31 54 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1 31 54 0
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1 36 54 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1 33 54 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1 33 57 0
View All Weather Forecasts For This Day By Division

A Sample Forecasting Procedure


Weather forecasters look at many types of data to help them build a forecast, and each forecaster will have their own approach. Here is a simple procedure to get you started.
  1. First look at current weather conditions:

    Surface Analysis

    Visible
    Satellite

    Infrared
    Satellite

    Radar

    A good stating point for formulating your forecast will be determining what is happening around the country today. Where are the major weather systems? Where has it been hot? Where has it been raining? Is any of this weather moving towards my forecasting site over the next forecasting period?
  2. Look at the National Weather Service hourly weather forecast graph and the forecast of fronts and precipitation:

    Graph

    Fronts/Precip
    Remember that the forecast day goes from about midnight to midnight local time. We forecast for a daily High and Low. The Low is typically recorded in the early morning hours of the day, while the high is generally reached in the afternoon. But check the hourly graph for the possibility that the Low and High might come at different times. For example, if a strong cold front comes through early in the day, the High might be in the early morning hours and the temperature might fall for the rest of the day, and the Low would be at the very end of the day.
  3. Look at National Weather Service precipitation forecasts:

    Precip
    The times for these plots are in UTC (or GMT); a contest day goes from 0600 UTC (about midnight in most of the U.S.) to 0600 UTC the next day. Click on the plots corresponding to those hours. Your precip forecast is for the whole day, so you would add the amounts from each 6- or 12-hr plot to calculate what the NWS is predicting for the entire contest day. Remember that you need to predict the amount in inches, and most locations receive amounts over one inch only a few times each year. On most days the precip forecast should be zero, and for many others it will be a few hundredths of an inch (e.g. 0.15 inches).
  4. Check and submit your forecast:
    Once you have determined your high, low, and precipitation amount, check it with the computer model forecasts shown in the table above. Are you close? Generally it’s a good idea to be fairly close to these computer forecasts, because they're typically quite good. Once you've entered your forecast in the form above, click the Submit button.

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Today


Click for Caldwell, NJ (KCDW) Forecast

Weather Forecasts for Today, Tuesday 9 March 2010

Forecaster Tmin(F) Tmax(F) Precip(in) Comment
OBSERVED 36 61 0 Observed data through: 19:53 EST.
Highest-Rated Forecasters From All Divisions
MEDIAN 33 52.5 0
CONSENSUS-1 33 52.5 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2 32 52 0
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2 33 51 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2 32 53 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2 33 54 0
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1 33 50 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1 32 52 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1 32 52 0
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1 32 49 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1 33 53 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1 34 55 0
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0 37 56 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0 35 55 0
PERSISTENCE 34 60 0
View All Weather Forecasts For This Day By Division

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Yesterday

Weather Forecasts for Yesterday, Monday 8 March 2010

Forecaster Tmin
(score)
Tmax
(score)
Precip
(score)
Comment Day
Score
Division
Points
OBSERVED 34 60 0 FINAL.
Best Forecasts From All Divisions
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1 32 (2) 54 (6) 0 (0) 8 11.5
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0 37 (3) 55 (5) 0 (0) 8 11.5
PERSISTENCE 29 (5) 57 (3) 0 (0) 8
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2 32 (2) 53 (7) 0 (0) 9 10
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1 32 (2) 52 (8) 0 (0) 10 8.5
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1 30 (4) 54 (6) 0 (0) 10 8.5
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2 29 (5) 54 (6) 0 (0) 11 5.5
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2 29 (5) 54 (6) 0 (0) 11 5.5
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1 29 (5) 54 (6) 0 (0) 11 5.5
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0 30 (4) 53 (7) 0 (0) 11 5.5
MEDIAN 29.5 (4.5) 53.5 (6.5) 0 (0) 11
CONSENSUS-1 29.5 (4.5) 53.5 (6.5) 0 (0) 11
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1 29 (5) 53 (7) 0 (0) 12 3
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2 29 (5) 52 (8) 0 (0) 13 1.5
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1 29 (5) 52 (8) 0 (0) 13 1.5
View All Weather Forecasts For This Day By Division

Daily Weather Map page

Results for Previous Days

Sunday 7 March 2010
Saturday 6 March 2010
Friday 5 March 2010
Thursday 4 March 2010

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Standings

Leading Weather Forecasters for Week of Sun 28 Feb 2010 - Sat 6 Mar 2010

Rank Forecaster # Forecasts Tmin
Score
Tmax
Score
Precip
Score
Week
Score
Division
Points
View All Forecasters For This Week By Division

Leading Weather Forecasters for March 2010

Rank Forecaster # Forecasts Tmin
Score
Tmax
Score
Precip
Score
Month
Score
Division
Points
View All Forecasters For This Month By Division

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Top Forecasters

Highest-Rated Weather Forecasters, All Divisions

Higher numbers are better, minimum of 5 forecasts
Rank Forecaster # Forecasts Forecaster Rating
1 MEDIAN 25 110.6
2 CONSENSUS-1 25 110.6

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Weather for Caldwell, New Jersey (KCDW)

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