Weather Forecasting Contest for Rome, NY (KRME)

Tomorrow

Forecast at a Glance from the National Weather Service

Tonight

Mostly Clear
Mostly
Clear
Lo 26 °F
Wednesday

Sunny
Sunny

Hi 51 °F
Wednesday
Night

Increasing Clouds
Increasing
Clouds
Lo 30 °F
Thursday

Slight Chance Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%
Slight Chc
Rain
Hi 52 °F
Thursday
Night

Chance Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 40%
Chance
Rain
Lo 39 °F
Friday

Rain Likely Chance for Measurable Precipitation 70%
Rain
Likely
Hi 48 °F
Friday
Night

Rain Likely Chance for Measurable Precipitation 70%
Rain
Likely
Lo 39 °F
Saturday

Rain Likely Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Rain
Likely
Hi 54 °F
Saturday
Night

Rain Likely Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Rain
Likely
Lo 37 °F

Go to National Weather Service page
Detailed site information

Weather Forecasts for Tomorrow, Wednesday 10 March 2010

Forecaster Tmin(F) Tmax(F) Precip(in) Comment
Highest-Rated Forecasters From All Divisions
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2 W W D D D D 24 45 0
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1 M M M M M M M D D 25 48 0
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1 W W D 23 46 0
CLIMATOLOGY 22 40 0.12 From 1971-2000 U.S. Climate Normals
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2 26 51 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2 26 51 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2 27 52 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1 25 51 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1 25 50 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1 27 50 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1 27 51 0
View All Weather Forecasts For This Day By Division

A Sample Forecasting Procedure


Weather forecasters look at many types of data to help them build a forecast, and each forecaster will have their own approach. Here is a simple procedure to get you started.
  1. First look at current weather conditions:

    Surface Analysis

    Visible
    Satellite

    Infrared
    Satellite

    Radar

    A good stating point for formulating your forecast will be determining what is happening around the country today. Where are the major weather systems? Where has it been hot? Where has it been raining? Is any of this weather moving towards my forecasting site over the next forecasting period?
  2. Look at the National Weather Service hourly weather forecast graph and the forecast of fronts and precipitation:

    Graph

    Fronts/Precip
    Remember that the forecast day goes from about midnight to midnight local time. We forecast for a daily High and Low. The Low is typically recorded in the early morning hours of the day, while the high is generally reached in the afternoon. But check the hourly graph for the possibility that the Low and High might come at different times. For example, if a strong cold front comes through early in the day, the High might be in the early morning hours and the temperature might fall for the rest of the day, and the Low would be at the very end of the day.
  3. Look at National Weather Service precipitation forecasts:

    Precip
    The times for these plots are in UTC (or GMT); a contest day goes from 0600 UTC (about midnight in most of the U.S.) to 0600 UTC the next day. Click on the plots corresponding to those hours. Your precip forecast is for the whole day, so you would add the amounts from each 6- or 12-hr plot to calculate what the NWS is predicting for the entire contest day. Remember that you need to predict the amount in inches, and most locations receive amounts over one inch only a few times each year. On most days the precip forecast should be zero, and for many others it will be a few hundredths of an inch (e.g. 0.15 inches).
  4. Check and submit your forecast:
    Once you have determined your high, low, and precipitation amount, check it with the computer model forecasts shown in the table above. Are you close? Generally it’s a good idea to be fairly close to these computer forecasts, because they're typically quite good. Once you've entered your forecast in the form above, click the Submit button.

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Today


Click for Rome, NY (KRME) Forecast

Weather Forecasts for Today, Tuesday 9 March 2010

Forecaster Tmin(F) Tmax(F) Precip(in) Comment
OBSERVED 22 48 0 Observed data through: 19:53 EST.
Highest-Rated Forecasters From All Divisions
CONSENSUS-1 26.4 40.4 0
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0 M M M M M D D D 28 42 0
MEDIAN 26.5 43 0
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2 W W D D D D 26 37 0
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1 M M M M M M M D D 27 38 0
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1 W W D 27 39 0
CLIMATOLOGY 21 39 0.12 From 1971-2000 U.S. Climate Normals
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2 24 43 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2 26 44 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2 28 44 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1 26 44 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1 26 43 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1 26 43 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1 27 42 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0 28 44 0
PERSISTENCE 22 45 0
View All Weather Forecasts For This Day By Division

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Yesterday

Weather Forecasts for Yesterday, Monday 8 March 2010

Forecaster Tmin
(score)
Tmax
(score)
Precip
(score)
Comment Day
Score
Division
Points
OBSERVED 22 45 0 FINAL.
Best Forecasts From All Divisions
PERSISTENCE 19 (3) 45 (0) 0 (0) 3
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2 26 (4) 43 (2) 0 (0) 6 11
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1 26 (4) 43 (2) 0 (0) 6 11
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1 27 (5) 44 (1) 0 (0) 6 11
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2 26 (4) 42 (3) 0 (0) 7 8
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1 26 (4) 42 (3) 0 (0) 7 8
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1 26 (4) 42 (3) 0 (0) 7 8
MEDIAN 26 (4) 42 (3) 0 (0) 7
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2 28 (6) 43 (2) 0 (0) 8 5.5
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1 M M M M M M M D D 24 (2) 39 (6) 0 (0) 8 5.5
CONSENSUS-1 26.2 (4.2) 40.4 (4.6) 0 (0) 8.8
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1 W W D 26 (4) 39 (6) 0 (0) 10 4
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0 30 (8) 42 (3) 0 (0) 11 3
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2 W W D D D D 27 (5) 38 (7) 0 (0) 12 2
CLIMATOLOGY 21 (1) 39 (6) 0.12 (6.7) From 1971-2000 U.S. Climate Normals 13.7
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0 M M M M M D D D 32 (10) 41 (4) 0 (0) 14 1
View All Weather Forecasts For This Day By Division

Daily Weather Map page

Results for Previous Days

Sunday 7 March 2010
Saturday 6 March 2010
Friday 5 March 2010
Thursday 4 March 2010

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Standings

Leading Weather Forecasters for Week of Sun 28 Feb 2010 - Sat 6 Mar 2010

Rank Forecaster # Forecasts Tmin
Score
Tmax
Score
Precip
Score
Week
Score
Division
Points
View All Forecasters For This Week By Division

Leading Weather Forecasters for March 2010

Rank Forecaster # Forecasts Tmin
Score
Tmax
Score
Precip
Score
Month
Score
Division
Points
View All Forecasters For This Month By Division

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Top Forecasters

Highest-Rated Weather Forecasters, All Divisions

Higher numbers are better, minimum of 5 forecasts
Rank Forecaster # Forecasts Forecaster Rating
1 CONSENSUS-1 25 109.7
2 NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0 25 109.6
3 MEDIAN 25 106.7
4 NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2 25 105.5
5 NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1 25 103.4
6 NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1 25 96.6
7 Glenn 26 72.1
8 PERSISTENCE 25 62.9
9 bberry32 25 58.9
10 CLIMATOLOGY 25 -9.3
11 sdaniels32 24 -15.3

Highest-Rated Divisions, Ranked by Rating of Median Forecaster

Higher numbers are better, includes forecasters with at least 5 forecasts
Rank Division # Forecasters Division Rating
1 WTSIF-GVanknowe-Associate 10 86.4
2 HSS-GVanknowe-HighSchool 8 61.7
3 HSS-GVanknowe-PhysSci 9 58.9

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Weather for Rome, New York (KRME)

Latest blog posts and forum topics

Observations For Week of Nov 1 - 7

Record the following at your home:
See Current Rome (Griffiss Weather) for help as needed.

Location:
Elevation:
Time of Observation:
Cloud Cover:
Precipitation Type:
Snow Depth:
Temperature:
Dewpoint/Humidity:
Pressure:
Comments:

Discussion Topics for week of 11/1 - 11/7

Answer the following as you observe the weather:

Which direction does the wind move around a low pressure and high pressure?

Which system is associated with cold and warm fronts?

What is an occluded front?

Why do fronts and low pressure systems bring "bad" weather?

Observations For Week of Oct 25 - 31

Record the following at your home:
See Current Rome (Griffiss Weather) for help as needed.

Location:
Elevation:
Time of Observation:
Cloud Cover:
Precipitation Type:
Snow Depth:
Temperature:
Dewpoint/Humidity:
Pressure:
Comments:

heat vs temperature

The difference between heat and temperature is- heat is the amount of energy in a system and temperature is the measure of the average molecular motion in a system.

Discussion Topics for week of 10/18 - 10/24

This week I would like you think about how we look at energy in the atmosphere. Please answer these three questions below and give you reasons for your answers:

1. Which day do you think the individual molecules of the air will have the largest amount of average kinetic energy in our air?

2. Which day will the air have the largest amount of kinetic energy that can be turned into wind power?

3. What is the difference between heat and temperature?

Weekend Snowstorm?

As we talked about in class today, the potential for a snow storm over the weekend exists. Some of the latest weather model runs suggest that as much as 6 - 12" of snow could fall in CNY. Other models indicate the heavy snow will stay just to our south and east. One thing that seems quite likely is that it will be cold enough for snow as the air above the surface is below freezing and will stay that way for the entire weekend period. Much below normal this time of year. So it will be very interesting see how this weather situation will unfold.

Forecast Discussion for 10/9/2009

A sfc low pres currently over srn Ohio/West Virginia, has the bulk of activity precipitation west of sfc low. This low will track northeast, just east of CNY, across eastern Pa and into southern New England by Saturday morning. This will give us a cloud rainy period Fri night into the first half of Saturday. The total storm rainfall amount will range from 1" in the eastern portion of NY to about 0.5" in CNY. High temperatures will be in the mid 50's during the afternoon, with low temperature in the upper 30's at night. Another system will move in from the west Sunday night giving us a good chance for light precipitation, with even a slight chance that some wet snow flakes will mix in. But no accumulations are expected with this system.

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