Weather Forecasting Contest for Rome, NY (KRME)
Tomorrow
Forecast at a Glance from the National Weather Service
| This Afternoon  Sunny Hi 45 °F | Tonight Wintry Mix Lo 27 °F | Tuesday Wintry Mix Hi 32 °F | Tuesday Night  Mostly Cloudy Lo 13 °F | Wednesday Mostly Sunny Hi 30 °F | Wednesday Night  Partly Cloudy Lo 19 °F | Thursday Mostly Sunny Hi 35 °F | Thursday Night  Mostly Clear Lo 22 °F | Friday Chance Snow Hi 35 °F |
Go to National Weather Service page
Detailed site information
Weather Forecasts for Tuesday 7 February 2012
| Forecaster | Tmin(F) | Tmax(F) | Precip(in) | Comment |
| NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1 | 19 | 34 | 0 | |
 NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1 |
16 | 33 | 0 | |
| NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1 | 18 | 36 | 0 | |
| NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2 | 21 | 37 | 0 | |
| NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1 | 15 | 33 | 0 | |
| NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1 | 18 | 35 | 0 | |
| NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2 | 19 | 31 | 0 | |
| NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2 | 21 | 35 | 0 | |
| NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2 | 19 | 36 | 0 | |
| CLIMATOLOGY | 12 | 30 | 0.11 | From 1971-2000 U.S. Climate Normals |
A Sample Forecasting Procedure
Weather forecasters look at many types of data to help them build a forecast, and each forecaster will have their own approach. Here is a simple procedure to get you started.
- First look at current weather conditions:
Surface Analysis
Visible
Satellite
Infrared
Satellite
Radar
A good stating point for formulating your forecast will be determining what is happening around the country today. Where are the major weather systems? Where has it been hot? Where has it been raining? Is any of this weather moving towards my forecasting site over the next forecasting period? - Look at the National Weather Service hourly weather forecast graph and the forecast of fronts and precipitation:
Remember that the forecast day goes from about midnight to midnight local time. We forecast for a daily High and Low. The Low is typically recorded in the early morning hours of the day, while the high is generally reached in the afternoon. But check the hourly graph for the possibility that the Low and High might come at different times. For example, if a strong cold front comes through early in the day, the High might be in the early morning hours and the temperature might fall for the rest of the day, and the Low would be at the very end of the day.
Graph
Fronts/Precip - Look at National Weather Service precipitation forecasts:
The times for these plots are in UTC (or GMT); a contest day goes from 0600 UTC (about midnight in most of the U.S.) to 0600 UTC the next day. Click on the plots corresponding to those hours. Your precip forecast is for the whole day, so you would add the amounts from each 6- or 12-hr plot to calculate what the NWS is predicting for the entire contest day. Remember that you need to predict the amount in inches, and most locations receive amounts over one inch only a few times each year. On most days the precip forecast should be zero, and for many others it will be a few hundredths of an inch (e.g. 0.15 inches).
Precip - Check and submit your forecast:
Once you have determined your high, low, and precipitation amount, check it with the computer model forecasts shown in the table above. Are you close? Generally it’s a good idea to be fairly close to these computer forecasts, because they're typically quite good. Once you've entered your forecast in the form above, click the Submit button.
Legend
| This Month's Division Leaders |
month division wins in last year
week division wins in last month
day division wins in last week| Elementary School Divisions |
| Middle School Divisions |
| High School Divisions |
| College Divisions |
| Teacher Division |
| Open Division |
| Computer Division |
| Consensus Division |
| Reference Division |
Today
Weather Forecasts for Monday 6 Februrary 2012
| Forecaster | Tmin | Tmax | Precip | Comment | ||
| OBSERVED | 22 | 43 | 0 | Observed data through: 11:53 EST. | ||
| Consensus | ||||||
| CONSENSUS-1 | 21.1 | 44.0 | 0 | |||
| MEDIAN | 21 | 44 | 0 | |||
| Computer | ||||||
| NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0 | 24 | 43 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0 | 26 | 45 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1 | 17 | 44 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1 | 20 | 45 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2 | 20 | 43 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1 | 20 | 43 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1 | 21 | 44 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1 | 21 | 45 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2 | 29 | 42 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1 | 20 | 44 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2 | 21 | 44 | 0 | |||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2 | 21 | 43 | 0 | |||
| Reference | ||||||
| CLIMATOLOGY | 12 | 30 | 0.11 | From 1971-2000 U.S. Climate Normals | ||
| PERSISTENCE | 16 | 34 | 0 | |||
Legend
| This Month's Division Leaders |
month division wins in last year week division wins in last month day division wins in last week| Elementary School Divisions |
| Middle School Divisions |
| High School Divisions |
| College Divisions |
| Teacher Division |
| Open Division |
| Computer Division |
| Consensus Division |
| Reference Division |
Yesterday
Weather Forecasts for Saturday 5 Februrary 2012
| Forecaster | Tmin (score) | Tmax (score) | Precip (score) | Comment | Day Score | Division Points |
| OBSERVED | 16 | 34 | 0 | Data FINAL. Scores COMPLETE. | ||
| Consensus | ||||||
| MEDIAN | 17 (1) | 34 (0) | 0 (0) | 1 | ||
| CONSENSUS-1 | 17.9 (1.9) | 33.9 (0.1) | 0 (0) | 1.9 | ||
| Computer | ||||||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY0 | 17 (1) | 34 (0) | 0 (0) | 1 | ||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1 | 17 (1) | 34 (0) | 0 (0) | 1 | ||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1 | 15 (1) | 35 (1) | 0 (0) | 2 | ||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2 | 17 (1) | 33 (1) | 0 (0) | 2 | ||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1 | 15 (1) | 35 (1) | 0 (0) | 2 | ||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1 | 18 (2) | 34 (0) | 0 (0) | 2 | ||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2 | 18 (2) | 34 (0) | 0 (0) | 2 | ||
| NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2 | 17 (1) | 33 (1) | 0 (0) | 2 | ||
| NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1 | 18 (2) | 36 (2) | 0 (0) | 4 | ||
| NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2 | 15 (1) | 30 (4) | 0 (0) | 5 | ||
| NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY0 | 21 (5) | 33 (1) | 0 (0) | 6 | ||
| NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1 | 25 (9) | 35 (1) | 0 (0) | 10 | ||
| Reference | ||||||
| PERSISTENCE | 17 (1) | 34 (0) | 0 (0) | 1 | ||
| CLIMATOLOGY | 12 (4) | 30 (4) | 0.11 (6.4) | From 1971-2000 U.S. Climate Normals | 14.4 | |
Daily Weather Map page
Results for Previous Days
Saturday 4 February 2012Friday 3 February 2012
Thursday 2 February 2012
Wednesday 1 February 2012
Legend
| This Month's Division Leaders |
month division wins in last year week division wins in last month day division wins in last week| Elementary School Divisions |
| Middle School Divisions |
| High School Divisions |
| College Divisions |
| Teacher Division |
| Open Division |
| Computer Division |
| Consensus Division |
| Reference Division |
Standings
Leading Weather Forecasters for Week of Sun 29 Jan 2012 - Sat 4 Feb 2012
| Rank | Forecaster | # Forecasts | Tmin Score | Tmax Score | Precip Score | Week Score | Division Points |
| Central New York Weather League | |||||||
| 1 | derecho80 | 5 | 12 | 11 | 9.7 | 32.7 | 23 |
| 2 | natwea80 | 4 | 21 | 15 | 4.9 | 40.9 | 14.5 |
| 3 | snowband80 | 4 | 25 | 9 | 2.3 | 36.3 | 11.5 |
| 4 | computer80 | 3 | 13 | 15 | 3.6 | 31.6 | 11 |
| 5 | les80 | 5 | 31 | 22 | 9.1 | 62.1 | 9 |
| 6 | stormchaser80 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 9.7 | 29.7 | 7 |
| 7 | weatherjan80 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7.5 | 19.5 | 1 |
Leading Weather Forecasters for Februrary 2012
| Rank | Forecaster | # Forecasts | Tmin Score | Tmax Score | Precip Score | Month Score | Division Points |
| Central New York Weather League | |||||||
| 1 | derecho80 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 3.6 | 18.6 | 20 |
| 2 | snowband80 | 4 | 25 | 9 | 2.3 | 36.3 | 11.5 |
| 3 | computer80 | 3 | 13 | 15 | 3.6 | 31.6 | 11 |
| 4 | natwea80 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 4.9 | 29.9 | 10.5 |
| 5 | stormchaser80 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 9.7 | 29.7 | 7 |
| 6 | les80 | 4 | 31 | 12 | 4.3 | 47.3 | 7 |
Legend
| This Month's Division Leaders |
month division wins in last year week division wins in last month day division wins in last week| Elementary School Divisions |
| Middle School Divisions |
| High School Divisions |
| College Divisions |
| Teacher Division |
| Open Division |
| Computer Division |
| Consensus Division |
| Reference Division |
Top Forecasters
Highest-Rated Forecasters, All Divisions
Higher numbers are better, minimum of 5 forecasts| Rank | Forecaster | # Forecasts | Forecaster Rating |
| 1 | derecho80 | 15 | 89.5 |
| 2 | apaul77 | 5 | 88.7 |
| 3 | computer80 | 11 | 84.9 |
| 4 | weatherjan80 | 14 | 79.6 |
| 5 | les80 | 21 | 73.1 |
| 6 | natwea80 | 20 | 64.4 |
| 7 | snowband80 | 15 | 59.9 |
| 8 | stormchaser80 | 11 | 40.3 |
Legend
| This Month's Division Leaders |
month division wins in last year week division wins in last month day division wins in last week| Elementary School Divisions |
| Middle School Divisions |
| High School Divisions |
| College Divisions |
| Teacher Division |
| Open Division |
| Computer Division |
| Consensus Division |
| Reference Division |
Weather for Rome, New York (KRME)
Observations For Week of Nov 1 - 7
Submitted by Glenn on Tue, 2009-11-03 22:23Record the following at your home:
See Current Rome (Griffiss Weather) for help as needed.
Location:
Elevation:
Time of Observation:
Cloud Cover:
Precipitation Type:
Snow Depth:
Temperature:
Dewpoint/Humidity:
Pressure:
Comments:
Discussion Topics for week of 11/1 - 11/7
Submitted by Glenn on Tue, 2009-10-27 23:15Answer the following as you observe the weather:
Which direction does the wind move around a low pressure and high pressure?
Which system is associated with cold and warm fronts?
What is an occluded front?
Why do fronts and low pressure systems bring "bad" weather?
Observations For Week of Oct 25 - 31
Submitted by Glenn on Tue, 2009-10-27 23:04Record the following at your home:
See Current Rome (Griffiss Weather) for help as needed.
Location:
Elevation:
Time of Observation:
Cloud Cover:
Precipitation Type:
Snow Depth:
Temperature:
Dewpoint/Humidity:
Pressure:
Comments:
heat vs temperature
Submitted by jdaniels32 on Wed, 2009-10-21 10:33The difference between heat and temperature is- heat is the amount of energy in a system and temperature is the measure of the average molecular motion in a system.
Discussion Topics for week of 10/18 - 10/24
Submitted by Glenn on Mon, 2009-10-19 12:52This week I would like you think about how we look at energy in the atmosphere. Please answer these three questions below and give you reasons for your answers:
1. Which day do you think the individual molecules of the air will have the largest amount of average kinetic energy in our air?
2. Which day will the air have the largest amount of kinetic energy that can be turned into wind power?
3. What is the difference between heat and temperature?
Weekend Snowstorm?
Submitted by Glenn on Thu, 2009-10-15 18:59As we talked about in class today, the potential for a snow storm over the weekend exists. Some of the latest weather model runs suggest that as much as 6 - 12" of snow could fall in CNY. Other models indicate the heavy snow will stay just to our south and east. One thing that seems quite likely is that it will be cold enough for snow as the air above the surface is below freezing and will stay that way for the entire weekend period. Much below normal this time of year. So it will be very interesting see how this weather situation will unfold.
Forecast Discussion for 10/9/2009
Submitted by Glenn on Fri, 2009-10-09 17:21A sfc low pres currently over srn Ohio/West Virginia, has the bulk of activity precipitation west of sfc low. This low will track northeast, just east of CNY, across eastern Pa and into southern New England by Saturday morning. This will give us a cloud rainy period Fri night into the first half of Saturday. The total storm rainfall amount will range from 1" in the eastern portion of NY to about 0.5" in CNY. High temperatures will be in the mid 50's during the afternoon, with low temperature in the upper 30's at night. Another system will move in from the west Sunday night giving us a good chance for light precipitation, with even a slight chance that some wet snow flakes will mix in. But no accumulations are expected with this system.
