Weather Forecasting Contest for Rome, NY (KRME)

Tomorrow

Forecast at a Glance from the National Weather Service

This
Afternoon

Sunny
Sunny

Hi 45 °F
Tonight

Wintry Mix
Wintry
Mix
Lo 27 °F
Tuesday

Wintry Mix
Wintry
Mix
Hi 32 °F
Tuesday
Night

Mostly Cloudy
Mostly
Cloudy
Lo 13 °F
Wednesday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly
Sunny
Hi 30 °F
Wednesday
Night

Partly Cloudy
Partly
Cloudy
Lo 19 °F
Thursday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly
Sunny
Hi 35 °F
Thursday
Night

Mostly Clear
Mostly
Clear
Lo 22 °F
Friday

Chance Snow Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Snow
Hi 35 °F

Go to National Weather Service page
Detailed site information

Weather Forecasts for Tuesday 7 February 2012

Forecaster Tmin(F) Tmax(F) Precip(in) Comment
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1 19 34 0
 NEWNWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1 16 33 0
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1 18 36 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2 21 37 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1 15 33 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1 18 35 0
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2 19 31 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2 21 35 0
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2 19 36 0
CLIMATOLOGY 12 30 0.11 From 1971-2000 U.S. Climate Normals

A Sample Forecasting Procedure


Weather forecasters look at many types of data to help them build a forecast, and each forecaster will have their own approach. Here is a simple procedure to get you started.
  1. First look at current weather conditions:

    Surface Analysis

    Visible
    Satellite

    Infrared
    Satellite

    Radar

    A good stating point for formulating your forecast will be determining what is happening around the country today. Where are the major weather systems? Where has it been hot? Where has it been raining? Is any of this weather moving towards my forecasting site over the next forecasting period?
  2. Look at the National Weather Service hourly weather forecast graph and the forecast of fronts and precipitation:

    Graph

    Fronts/Precip
    Remember that the forecast day goes from about midnight to midnight local time. We forecast for a daily High and Low. The Low is typically recorded in the early morning hours of the day, while the high is generally reached in the afternoon. But check the hourly graph for the possibility that the Low and High might come at different times. For example, if a strong cold front comes through early in the day, the High might be in the early morning hours and the temperature might fall for the rest of the day, and the Low would be at the very end of the day.
  3. Look at National Weather Service precipitation forecasts:

    Precip
    The times for these plots are in UTC (or GMT); a contest day goes from 0600 UTC (about midnight in most of the U.S.) to 0600 UTC the next day. Click on the plots corresponding to those hours. Your precip forecast is for the whole day, so you would add the amounts from each 6- or 12-hr plot to calculate what the NWS is predicting for the entire contest day. Remember that you need to predict the amount in inches, and most locations receive amounts over one inch only a few times each year. On most days the precip forecast should be zero, and for many others it will be a few hundredths of an inch (e.g. 0.15 inches).
  4. Check and submit your forecast:
    Once you have determined your high, low, and precipitation amount, check it with the computer model forecasts shown in the table above. Are you close? Generally it’s a good idea to be fairly close to these computer forecasts, because they're typically quite good. Once you've entered your forecast in the form above, click the Submit button.

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Today


Click for Rome, NY (KRME) Forecast

Weather Forecasts for Monday 6 Februrary 2012

ForecasterTminTmaxPrecipComment
OBSERVED22430Observed data through: 11:53 EST.
Consensus
CONSENSUS-121.144.00
MEDIAN21440
Computer
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY024430
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY026450
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY117440
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY120450
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY220430
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY120430
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY121440
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY121450
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY229420
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY120440
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY221440
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY221430
Reference
CLIMATOLOGY12300.11From 1971-2000 U.S. Climate Normals
PERSISTENCE16340

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Yesterday

Weather Forecasts for Saturday 5 Februrary 2012

ForecasterTmin
(score)
Tmax
(score)
Precip
(score)
CommentDay
Score
Division
Points
OBSERVED16340Data FINAL. Scores COMPLETE.
Consensus
MEDIAN17 (1)34 (0)0 (0)1
CONSENSUS-117.9 (1.9)33.9 (0.1)0 (0)1.9
Computer
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY017 (1)34 (0)0 (0)1
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY117 (1)34 (0)0 (0)1
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY115 (1)35 (1)0 (0)2
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY217 (1)33 (1)0 (0)2
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY115 (1)35 (1)0 (0)2
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY118 (2)34 (0)0 (0)2
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY218 (2)34 (0)0 (0)2
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY217 (1)33 (1)0 (0)2
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY118 (2)36 (2)0 (0)4
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY215 (1)30 (4)0 (0)5
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY021 (5)33 (1)0 (0)6
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY125 (9)35 (1)0 (0)10
Reference
PERSISTENCE17 (1)34 (0)0 (0)1
CLIMATOLOGY12 (4)30 (4)0.11 (6.4)From 1971-2000 U.S. Climate Normals14.4

Daily Weather Map page

Results for Previous Days

Saturday 4 February 2012
Friday 3 February 2012
Thursday 2 February 2012
Wednesday 1 February 2012

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Standings

Leading Weather Forecasters for Week of Sun 29 Jan 2012 - Sat 4 Feb 2012

RankForecaster# ForecastsTmin
Score
Tmax
Score
Precip
Score
Week
Score
Division
Points
Central New York Weather League
1derecho80 W D D D512119.732.723
2natwea80 D421154.940.914.5
3snowband80 W42592.336.311.5
4computer80 D313153.631.611
5les80 M W W531229.162.19
6stormchaser80 D31289.729.77
7weatherjan80 D12107.519.51

Leading Weather Forecasters for Februrary 2012

RankForecaster# ForecastsTmin
Score
Tmax
Score
Precip
Score
Month
Score
Division
Points
Central New York Weather League
1derecho80 W D D D41233.618.620
2snowband80 W42592.336.311.5
3computer80 D313153.631.611
4natwea80 D31964.929.910.5
5stormchaser80 D31289.729.77
6les80 M W W431124.347.37

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Top Forecasters

Highest-Rated Forecasters, All Divisions

Higher numbers are better, minimum of 5 forecasts
RankForecaster# ForecastsForecaster Rating
1derecho80 W D D D1589.5
2apaul77 M M D D588.7
3computer80 D1184.9
4weatherjan80 D1479.6
5les80 M W W2173.1
6natwea80 D2064.4
7snowband80 W1559.9
8stormchaser80 D1140.3

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Weather for Rome, New York (KRME)

Latest blog posts and forum topics

Observations For Week of Nov 1 - 7

Record the following at your home:
See Current Rome (Griffiss Weather) for help as needed.

Location:
Elevation:
Time of Observation:
Cloud Cover:
Precipitation Type:
Snow Depth:
Temperature:
Dewpoint/Humidity:
Pressure:
Comments:

Discussion Topics for week of 11/1 - 11/7

Answer the following as you observe the weather:

Which direction does the wind move around a low pressure and high pressure?

Which system is associated with cold and warm fronts?

What is an occluded front?

Why do fronts and low pressure systems bring "bad" weather?

Observations For Week of Oct 25 - 31

Record the following at your home:
See Current Rome (Griffiss Weather) for help as needed.

Location:
Elevation:
Time of Observation:
Cloud Cover:
Precipitation Type:
Snow Depth:
Temperature:
Dewpoint/Humidity:
Pressure:
Comments:

heat vs temperature

The difference between heat and temperature is- heat is the amount of energy in a system and temperature is the measure of the average molecular motion in a system.

Discussion Topics for week of 10/18 - 10/24

This week I would like you think about how we look at energy in the atmosphere. Please answer these three questions below and give you reasons for your answers:

1. Which day do you think the individual molecules of the air will have the largest amount of average kinetic energy in our air?

2. Which day will the air have the largest amount of kinetic energy that can be turned into wind power?

3. What is the difference between heat and temperature?

Weekend Snowstorm?

As we talked about in class today, the potential for a snow storm over the weekend exists. Some of the latest weather model runs suggest that as much as 6 - 12" of snow could fall in CNY. Other models indicate the heavy snow will stay just to our south and east. One thing that seems quite likely is that it will be cold enough for snow as the air above the surface is below freezing and will stay that way for the entire weekend period. Much below normal this time of year. So it will be very interesting see how this weather situation will unfold.

Forecast Discussion for 10/9/2009

A sfc low pres currently over srn Ohio/West Virginia, has the bulk of activity precipitation west of sfc low. This low will track northeast, just east of CNY, across eastern Pa and into southern New England by Saturday morning. This will give us a cloud rainy period Fri night into the first half of Saturday. The total storm rainfall amount will range from 1" in the eastern portion of NY to about 0.5" in CNY. High temperatures will be in the mid 50's during the afternoon, with low temperature in the upper 30's at night. Another system will move in from the west Sunday night giving us a good chance for light precipitation, with even a slight chance that some wet snow flakes will mix in. But no accumulations are expected with this system.

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