Weather Forecasting Contest for Clemson, SC (KCEU)

Tomorrow

Forecast at a Glance from the National Weather Service

Tonight

Chance Thunderstorms Chance for Measurable Precipitation 50%
Chance
Thunderstorms


Low: 72 °F
Thursday

Thunderstorms Likely Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Thunderstorms
Likely


High: 85 °F
Thursday
Night
Thunderstorms Likely Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Thunderstorms
Likely


Low: 71 °F
Friday

Chance Thunderstorms Chance for Measurable Precipitation 50%
Chance
Thunderstorms


High: 88 °F
Friday
Night
Chance Thunderstorms Chance for Measurable Precipitation 40%
Chance
Thunderstorms


Low: 71 °F
Independence
Day
Chance Thunderstorms Chance for Measurable Precipitation 40%
Chance
Thunderstorms


High: 88 °F
Saturday
Night
Chance Showers Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Showers


Low: 69 °F
Sunday

Chance Thunderstorms Chance for Measurable Precipitation 40%
Chance
Thunderstorms


High: 88 °F
Sunday
Night
Chance Thunderstorms Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Thunderstorms


Low: 70 °F

Go to National Weather Service page
Detailed site information

Weather Forecasts for Thursday 2 July 2015

Forecaster Tmin(F) Tmax(F) Precip(in) Comment
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2 70 87 0.03
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY1 68 88 0.05
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2 71 88 0.05
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY1 68 83 2.51
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY1 69 88 0.07
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1 70 88 0.05
 NEWNWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY1 69 87 0.10
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2 70 87 0.60
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1 68 84 1.03
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2 69 85 1.56

A Sample Forecasting Procedure


Weather forecasters look at many types of data to help them build a forecast, and each forecaster will have their own approach. Here is a simple procedure to get you started.
  1. First look at current weather conditions:

    Surface Analysis

    Visible
    Satellite

    Infrared
    Satellite

    Radar

    A good stating point for formulating your forecast will be determining what is happening around the country today. Where are the major weather systems? Where has it been hot? Where has it been raining? Is any of this weather moving towards my forecasting site over the next forecasting period?
  2. Look at the National Weather Service hourly weather forecast graph and the forecast of fronts and precipitation:

    Graph

    Fronts/Precip
    Remember that the forecast day goes from about midnight to midnight local time. We forecast for a daily High and Low. The Low is typically recorded in the early morning hours of the day, while the high is generally reached in the afternoon. But check the hourly graph for the possibility that the Low and High might come at different times. For example, if a strong cold front comes through early in the day, the High might be in the early morning hours and the temperature might fall for the rest of the day, and the Low would be at the very end of the day.
  3. Look at National Weather Service precipitation forecasts:

    Precip
    The times for these plots are in UTC (or GMT); a contest day goes from 0600 UTC (about midnight in most of the U.S.) to 0600 UTC the next day. Click on the plots corresponding to those hours. Your precip forecast is for the whole day, so you would add the amounts from each 6- or 12-hr plot to calculate what the NWS is predicting for the entire contest day. Remember that you need to predict the amount in inches, and most locations receive amounts over one inch only a few times each year. On most days the precip forecast should be zero, and for many others it will be a few hundredths of an inch (e.g. 0.15 inches).
  4. Check and submit your forecast:
    Once you have determined your high, low, and precipitation amount, check it with the computer model forecasts shown in the table above. Are you close? Generally it’s a good idea to be fairly close to these computer forecasts, because they're typically quite good. Once you've entered your forecast in the form above, click the Submit button.

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Today


Click for Clemson, SC (KCEU) Forecast

Weather Forecasts for Wednesday 1 July 2015

ForecasterTminTmaxPrecipComment
OBSERVED69840Observed data through: 17:54 EDT.
Consensus
CONSENSUS-168.989.00.01
MEDIAN68.5890
Computer
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY071870.05
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY070890
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY268880
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY168910
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY268910
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY170870
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY169890
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY168910
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY168890
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY269900
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY168860.42
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY269870.80

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Yesterday

Weather Forecasts for Tuesday 30 June 2015

ForecasterTmin
(score)
Tmax
(score)
Precip
(score)
CommentDay
Score
Division
Points
OBSERVED71880Data FINAL. Tmin data missing. Tmax data missing. Precip data missing. Scores will not be calculated, but forecasters will receive equal division points for participation. Scores COMPLETE.
Consensus
CONSENSUS-169.3 (0)90.3 (0)0.01 (0)0
MEDIAN68.5 (0)90 (0)0 (0)0
Computer
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY071 (0)88 (0)0.05 (0)0
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY072 (0)91 (0)0 (0)0
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY269 (0)91 (0)0 (0)0
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY168 (0)90 (0)0 (0)0
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY270 (0)90 (0)0 (0)0
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY168 (0)91 (0)0.03 (0)0
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY168 (0)91 (0)0 (0)0
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY169 (0)91 (0)0 (0)0
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY168 (0)90 (0)0 (0)0
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY269 (0)90 (0)0 (0)0
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY168 (0)90 (0)0.03 (0)0
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY268 (0)89 (0)0.07 (0)0
Reference
PERSISTENCE64 (0)87 (0)0 (0)0

Daily Weather Map page

Results for Previous Days

Monday 29 June 2015
Sunday 28 June 2015
Saturday 27 June 2015
Friday 26 June 2015

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Standings

Leading Weather Forecasters for Week of Sun 28 Jun 2015 - Sat 4 Jul 2015

RankForecaster# ForecastsTmin
Score
Tmax
Score
Precip
Score
Week
Score
Division
Points

Leading Weather Forecasters for June 2015

RankForecaster# ForecastsTmin
Score
Tmax
Score
Precip
Score
Month
Score
Division
Points

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Top Forecasters

Highest-Rated Forecasters, All Divisions

Higher numbers are better, minimum of 5 forecasts
RankForecaster# ForecastsForecaster Rating
1CONSENSUS-125121.6
2MEDIAN25119.5

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

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