Weather Forecasting Contest for Clemson, SC (KCEU)

Tomorrow

Forecast at a Glance from the National Weather Service

This
Afternoon
Scattered Showers Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Scattered
Showers
High: 80 °F
Tonight

Scattered Showers Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Scattered
Showers
Low: 56 °F
Thursday

Chance Showers Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Showers
High: 62 °F
Thursday
Night
Rain Likely Chance for Measurable Precipitation 70%
Rain
Likely
Low: 48 °F
Friday

Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 80%
Rain

High: 48 °F
Friday
Night
Rain Likely Chance for Measurable Precipitation 70%
Rain
Likely
Low: 48 °F
Saturday

Rain Likely Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%
Rain
Likely
High: 64 °F
Saturday
Night
Chance Showers Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%
Chance
Showers
Low: 54 °F
Sunday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly
Sunny
High: 73 °F

Go to National Weather Service page
Detailed site information

Weather Forecasts for Sunday 19 April 2015

Forecaster Tmin(F) Tmax(F) Precip(in) Comment
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY2 64 75 2.29
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY2 61 66 2.29
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY1 65 77 2.64
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY2 58 66 1.73
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY1 63 76 1.75
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY2 60 78 2.10

A Sample Forecasting Procedure


Weather forecasters look at many types of data to help them build a forecast, and each forecaster will have their own approach. Here is a simple procedure to get you started.
  1. First look at current weather conditions:

    Surface Analysis

    Visible
    Satellite

    Infrared
    Satellite

    Radar

    A good stating point for formulating your forecast will be determining what is happening around the country today. Where are the major weather systems? Where has it been hot? Where has it been raining? Is any of this weather moving towards my forecasting site over the next forecasting period?
  2. Look at the National Weather Service hourly weather forecast graph and the forecast of fronts and precipitation:

    Graph

    Fronts/Precip
    Remember that the forecast day goes from about midnight to midnight local time. We forecast for a daily High and Low. The Low is typically recorded in the early morning hours of the day, while the high is generally reached in the afternoon. But check the hourly graph for the possibility that the Low and High might come at different times. For example, if a strong cold front comes through early in the day, the High might be in the early morning hours and the temperature might fall for the rest of the day, and the Low would be at the very end of the day.
  3. Look at National Weather Service precipitation forecasts:

    Precip
    The times for these plots are in UTC (or GMT); a contest day goes from 0600 UTC (about midnight in most of the U.S.) to 0600 UTC the next day. Click on the plots corresponding to those hours. Your precip forecast is for the whole day, so you would add the amounts from each 6- or 12-hr plot to calculate what the NWS is predicting for the entire contest day. Remember that you need to predict the amount in inches, and most locations receive amounts over one inch only a few times each year. On most days the precip forecast should be zero, and for many others it will be a few hundredths of an inch (e.g. 0.15 inches).
  4. Check and submit your forecast:
    Once you have determined your high, low, and precipitation amount, check it with the computer model forecasts shown in the table above. Are you close? Generally it’s a good idea to be fairly close to these computer forecasts, because they're typically quite good. Once you've entered your forecast in the form above, click the Submit button.

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Today


Click for Clemson, SC (KCEU) Forecast

Weather Forecasts for Saturday 18 April 2015

ForecasterTminTmaxPrecipComment
OBSERVED62630Observed data through: 06:54 EDT.
Consensus
CONSENSUS-160.777.50.11
MEDIAN6078.50.05
Computer
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY062760.24
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY063770.12
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY261800
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY159770.05
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY260800.07
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY159710.29
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY161800.05
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY160800.05
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY161760.10
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY260770
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY157820
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY258810.05
Reference
PERSISTENCE56690.14

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Yesterday

Weather Forecasts for Friday 17 April 2015

ForecasterTmin
(score)
Tmax
(score)
Precip
(score)
CommentDay
Score
Division
Points
OBSERVED56690.14Data FINAL. Scores COMPLETE.
Consensus
CONSENSUS-155.1 (0.9)73.7 (4.7)0.12 (0.6)6.2
MEDIAN55 (1)74 (5)0.03 (3.1)9.1
Computer
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY155 (1)73 (4)0.17 (0.9)5.9
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY055 (1)72 (3)0.05 (2.4)6.4
NWS-MOS-NAM-00-DAY153 (3)70 (1)0.05 (2.4)6.4
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY155 (1)74 (5)0.10 (1.1)7.1
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY057 (1)72 (3)0.40 (5.1)9.1
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY152 (4)68 (1)0.40 (5.1)10.1
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY156 (0)74 (5)0 (7.2)12.2
NWS-MOS-GFS-00-DAY156 (0)75 (6)0 (7.2)13.2
NWS-MOS-GFS-06-DAY256 (0)75 (6)0 (7.2)13.2
NWS-MOS-GFS-18-DAY255 (1)77 (8)0 (7.2)16.2
NWS-MOS-NAM-12-DAY252 (4)74 (5)0 (7.2)16.2
NWS-MOS-GFS-12-DAY255 (1)78 (9)0 (7.2)17.2
Reference
PERSISTENCE51 (5)62 (7)0.06 (2.1)14.1

Daily Weather Map page

Results for Previous Days

Thursday 16 April 2015
Wednesday 15 April 2015
Tuesday 14 April 2015
Monday 13 April 2015

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Standings

Leading Weather Forecasters for Week of Sun 12 Apr 2015 - Sat 18 Apr 2015

RankForecaster# ForecastsTmin
Score
Tmax
Score
Precip
Score
Week
Score
Division
Points

Leading Weather Forecasters for April 2015

RankForecaster# ForecastsTmin
Score
Tmax
Score
Precip
Score
Month
Score
Division
Points

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

Top Forecasters

Highest-Rated Forecasters, All Divisions

Higher numbers are better, minimum of 5 forecasts
RankForecaster# ForecastsForecaster Rating
1CONSENSUS-125121.6
2MEDIAN25119.5

Legend

This Month's Division Leaders
 M month division wins in last year
 W week division wins in last month
 D day division wins in last week
Elementary School Divisions
Middle School Divisions
High School Divisions
College Divisions
Teacher Division
Open Division
Computer Division
Consensus Division
Reference Division

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